New forecast calls for commercial mortgage lending to stay the course in 2022

Commercial and multifamily mortgage lending totals in 2022 are set to look much the same as they did last year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The trade group released a new forecast calling for $895 billion in total originations for full-year 2022, a bump of 0.4% from the $891 billion volume of 2021.

“The economic and interest rate outlook has shifted since MBA’s last updated commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast in February,” said Jamie Woodwell, the group’s vice president of commercial real estate research.

“The rapid rise in interest rates is expected to take some wind out of the sails of new lending activity, but healthy property fundamentals and strong property values should support the markets and keep commercial real estate mortgage demand at strong levels. Borrowing and lending should still match last year’s record levels.”

Multifamily lending is expected to remain robust during the remainder of this year but is now expected to fall short of the record-high volume of 2021, Woodwell added. The MBA projected multifamily lending alone to finish this year at $418 billion this year, an 11% reduction from the estimated $470 million in 2021 (a record volume for this sector).

Lending volumes are expected to climb further in 2023. The MBA’s new forecast calls for nearly $950 billion in commercial real estate lending next year, with multifamily accounting for $442 billion.


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