At this week’s Commercial Real Estate Finance/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo in San Diego, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) announced that 2020 will mark a rebound in commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities.
The data comes from the MBA’s commercial real estate/multifamily survey of loan maturity volumes, which revealed that $163.2 billion (or a 7% share) of the $2.2 trillion in outstanding commercial and multifamily loans held by nonbank lenders and investors is set to mature this year. That’s a 48% jump from the $110.5 billion that matured in 2019.
The anticipated rise should kick off a stabilization in mortgage maturation patterns after a rollercoaster ride in the past few years, according to Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s vice president of commercial real estate research.
“This year marks the beginning of a ‘return to normalcy’ after the so-called ‘wall of maturities’ in 2016 and 2017, and the ‘trough of maturities’ in 2018 and 2019,” he said.
Even with the bounceback, however, Woodwell called the volume of 2020 maturities “muted.”
“This is particularly true for multifamily mortgages held or guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, of which less than 2% of the outstanding balance will mature,” Woodwell said. “Loans made by investor-driven lenders, such as mortgage REITs, debt funds and credit companies, tend to be shorter-term, which is why nearly one-quarter of the outstanding balance of those loans will mature in 2020.”
Per the report, volumes among loan maturities fluctuate substantially by investor group. For example, $59.3 billion (24%) of commercial mortgages held by credit companies and other investors are due to mature in 2020. Life insurance companies, on the other hand, will see only $24.8 billion (4%) of their outstanding balances come due.
Woodwell added that different property markets are also in “very different places,” the MBA reported.
“The apartment market is like the Energizer Bunny. It was the first property type to come back after the recession and it has been the leader ever since,” he said at the convention. “There are more multifamily units under construction today than any time since the 1970s, but there is still strong absorption out there. Investors continue to seek out multifamily investment either on the debt or the equity side.”
Office activity, on the other hand, offers more of a mixed picture. “On one hand, we see strong employment growth,” Woodwell said. “At the same time, we’re seeing people use office space more efficiently, so new demand has not been fully met.”
Meanwhile, the retail sector continues to evolve as more consumer sales are completed via e-commerce rather than at brick-and-mortar locations.
“There is a move toward ‘experiential’ retail,” Woodwell said. “The type of retail property that has seen the greatest growth is nail salons, because you can’t do that over the internet. So, there are very interesting shifts in the retail sector.”