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Housing markets vulnerable to COVID-19 impact clustered around East Coast

A new report from Attom Data Solutions assessed county-level housing markets all over the country to evaluate their vulnerability to the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, finding the East Coast peppered with at-risk areas.

Attom evaluated 406 U.S. counties, gauging them via recent reports on home affordability, equity and foreclosures. Markets considered more or less at risk depending on the share of homes facing foreclosure, the share of homes with mortgage balances over the estimated property value, and the percentage of local wages needed to pay major home ownership expenses.

The study found that 43 of the 50 most vulnerable counties are located either within Illinois or along a stretch of states on the eastern seaboard, from Connecticut to Florida. That list includes 11 of the suburban counties surrounding New York City; seven in greater Chicago; five around Washington, D.C.; and four surrounding Baltimore.

Five of Connecticut’s eight counties also appeared in the top 50.

The preponderance of East Coast counties ranking high for pandemic risk isn’t a good sign for the region, especially given that numerous East Coast areas also appeared in a similar report prepared by Attom one quarter prior. In that ranking, New Jersey and Florida had 24 of the 50 most at-risk counties. Another two were in Maryland, and another five in Illinois.

The West, in comparison, had just four high-risk counties in the most recent ranking’s top 50, all in California.

Of the 50 least at-risk counties, 26 were concentrated in four states: Colorado, Oregon, Texas and Wisconsin. The Lone Star State, in particular, contains some of the largest counties with the least risk, including Harris County (Houston); Dallas, Tarrant and Collin counties (Dallas-Fort Worth); and Travis County (Austin).

“With this second special report on the potential impact of the pandemic, we see pockets around the country that appear more or less poised to withstand downward pressure on prices and other market conditions,” said Todd Teta, Attom’s chief product officer. “Over the next few months, enough data should come in to tell us how things will most likely pan out.”

For more on the report, check out Attom’s blog.

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